Tech Mediums

Don’t know if this has been talked about a lot before, so here it goes.  There are flaws in the logic so hit me back if there’s a better way to think about this…koe@TechMediums.com.  

What if traditional media companies were able to use predictive models to lower their inherent risk profile?

 The Risk Profile

So, think of media companies (like Disney, EA, Bad Boy) as a series of formal start-up ventures, where the business model requires the constant formation of start-ups (e.g.., new artists, games, movies) to make money. 

However, unlike normal start-ups, each media start-up utilizes common administrative systems like legal, accounting, marketing, etc., and, for the most part, they are more efficient, since this is what they do day-in and day-out.

Some of these businesses already have a library of content (franchises like Madden, or Disney’s Classics) that they milk to lower the risk profile – making the business model more like software - build it once and charge “rents” and/or offer updated versions for a fee.

But unless you have people who consistently pick out winning “ventures” (Diddy, Clive Davis and DJ Drama come to mind), then you’re at a much higher risk.

 Predictive Models

So what if predictive models (PM) could be used to lower the risk profile by refining the kinds of potential audiences, venues, alternative media, (like video games for film or music), price points, additional merchandise that could be sold to fans? 

Predictive models use a series of data (like whether someone buys a product on sale, what day, what kinds of products, etc.) to anticipate future behavior, like other products they would buy or what day they’d buy in on.  It’s a way to drastically improve the click-through rates of customers.  Obviously, the most widely known models are the ones used by Netflix and Amazon.  Insurance companies have been doing this for years, though, in determining likelihood of getting into accidents or dieing.

  Application to Media?

So how can it be applied to media?

Example questions that can be answered:

·        Music -

o       What extras, if any, should be given away with the CDs?

o       Should CDs even be made?

o       Would demand increase by offering the music for free (then charge for concerts and merchandise) or charge for music, lower price for concerts or no change?

o       What kind of merchandise should be sold?

·        Movies –

o       Should advertising be 100% online? 

o       What other product tie-ins could be developed?

o       What products should be licensed?

·        TV -

o       Which shows or episodes should be broadcast on internet only?

o       What other product tie-ins could be developed?

o       What products should be licensed?

Notice that none of these deal with content.  Entertainment is such a different animal.  You can do all the right research - type of movie to produce, the actors and directors to hire, etc, - and still fall flat because the actor didn’t put in his/her best performance, etc., etc. 

Nonetheless, constant research, polling – on and offline, are critical to gaining as much detail as possible.

 While many of these questions have already been answered, to varying degrees of success, PM (like the one developed by Proclivity Systems) seeks to maximize the effectiveness of the marketing, product development, licensing, etc., and lower the risk profile of the business (not necessarily eliminate it).

Before we get into piracy, a word from McLovin (of SuperBad) on the topic.

Matt Mason, in his book “Pirate’s Dilemma: How Youth Culture is Reinventing Capitalism” discusses a fascinating look into what is very possible a mega trend…piracy in other forms – not just music but everything, how technology is making piracy easier and how, on some level, it should be embraced.

As far as the first two points, sure, there have been bootleg BMWs, watches, software, but Matt’s talking about a world where it’s becoming much easier.

An example, is the 3D printer, which has been talked about for a while (heard about this at about the same time I heard that someone built a PC accessory that could replicate smells over the internet).

As far as it being embraced, I remember an old professor of mine, Pete Fader, a marketing professor at Wharton who’s known for his patented rants, arguing that file sharing was actually good for copyright holders (primarily record labels and their artists). It created buzz. Matt also talks about this in that the demographic who would get pirated material is not the demographic who would actually buy the material. Fader argued that the labels were wrong when saying that they lost $X amount in revenues due to pirated materials. “That’s ridiculous!” Fader said. Just because you can’t get something for free, doesn’t mean you’ll buy it otherwise.

While thinking that copyright laws should be updated, Matt likes the idea of piracy (mentioning that he can’t wait for his book to be pirated).

I actually agree, in concept. I like the idea that new business models need to emerge. That’s why I like open markets. It forces companies, and thus, products, to evolve.

But if I spend a lot of money to make intellectual property, I deserve the right to protect it, regardless of borders.

That notwithstanding, I also think some forms of IP can be seen as marketing materials for a greater thing. Classic example is music. Because of the amount of music put out yearly and the lack of distinguishing characteristics of some tracks to others, music seems more like a commodity. As such, it could be effectively used to market the artist. Artists can let viral marketing take over, bootlegged or not. In fact, in this scenario, you want people to pirate it because it costs you nothing…free marketing to create demand.

The model that I favor is a controlled “open” IP.

Software companies have been doing things like this for a LONG time. Adobe let people get Reader (reads pdf documents) for free to help create demand for Acrobat (to make pdf), for which it charges.

This model might be able to be used consistently for all IP and is a direct link to revenue– that’s why I like it.

Here’s Matt’s video. Enjoy!

Thanks to ProHipHop.com for the video.

Say what you want you want to about Spike Lee, but he’s someone you always think something about.  That’s power.  Think about it…

Well, that has nothing to do with what I’m about to write J 

Nokia did some research and realized that in the next 4 years, 1 in 4 people will create, edit and share entertainment, versus getting it from traditional sources like the TV, radio…a theatre. 

This, combined with a theme of more and more content being used, edited through mobile devices made Nokia, based in Finland, think that a Spike Lee Joint/Nokia Collabo a good deal.

 The Quicks:

Aspiring filmmakers will upload their videos, music and photos to www.nokiaproductions.com using their mobile devises (ideally Nokia devices).  Visitors to the site will vote on their favorites separated into acts.  Lee and a few assistant directors will review the material and pick the winner in each of the acts for inclusion in a final short film.  

For Nokia, it’s a chance to use their technology at the front side of a mega trend and the chance to work with a brand name director.  For Lee, it’s a chance to work in a medium that he’s admittedly a fish out of water.

So not only is Street Racer coming out on May 9, but we get a double dose of the Incredible Hulk coming out on June 13, 2008!  

 Trailer

The Quicks

Brucey B is the scientist whose cells were infected by radiation that causes him to transform into the Incredible Hulk when under extreme stress.  The new angle…after days of testing a captured Hulk (Bruce Banner), the Russians collect enough DNA to infect Emil Blonsky (Tim Roth), a KGB spy, with the same radiation to create the Abomination, who is billed as being badder and stronger than the Hulk, in calm state.  Until the Abomination, Banner (Norton), was trying to get rid of the Hulk…but now realizes that the only hope for the world is become the very thing he hates.

Let’s get down to it…

 Pros

·        CGI looks really good.

·        Looks like this will be much better than Ang Lee’s version a few years ago.  Then again, the bar is pretty low.

·        It’s got Ed Norton as Bruce Banner who should do right by Bill Bixby (for those who don’t know, Bixby was Bruce Banner in the TV series that helped bring Hulk to the mainstream).

·        Story line sounds sick

 Cons (or Fears)

·        While CGI is really good, is doesn’t appear to be as fluid (i.e., looks a little below the Pixar standard – which admittedly is the platinum standard).

·        I pray it’s not like the 2003 version.  That one took way too long for the Hulk to appear and some scenes really should’ve been cut out - like then one when Banner’s Father (Nick Nolte) and Banner (Eric Bana) discuss how bad a father he was to Banner - ugh.  My wife (then girlfriend) still has this as a black mark on my, otherwise, record J  - Ang Lee (director of 2003 Hulk) did a phenomenal job on CGO, though.  

·        Trailers sometimes don’t do the film justice (in good and bad ways).

All-in-all, I’m really excited about the spring with Speed Racer on the docket, backed w/ Hulk!!!

Quick side by side comparison of Hulk and Abomination…

As a CGI buff, I can’t want to see Speed Racer.  Admittedly, I watched the anime, but never converted to hard core fan.  But the trailers have gotten me interested and if the movie lives up to the hype, then I’ll be a fan.  Based on the trailers, the gods of CGI, aka the Wachowski Brothers, are staying very true to the anime: from the style of cars, to angles of the camera (even passing fans will reminisce over this and how well it’s done).

Honestly, with the Brothers at the helm, the question is how much better than other CGIs films is this going to be?  In theatres…May 9 (and on iMax too…that’s gonna be ridiculous).

Check the trailer for your self (there are more at SpeedRacertheMovie.com!

FYI – my short list of best CGI films…including animated flicks…(in now order because it depends on what mood I’m in)

Matrix (all of them)

Star Wars Episode III

Finding Nemo

Lord of the Rings (all of them – Gollum is ridiculously sick)

Emeritus

Star Wars Episode IV (obviously)