
The battle for Middle Earth (I mean, internet advertising) is getting VERY interesting. So you have the 400 lb sumo wrestlers in the ring (based on traffic), Yahoo & Google, each having 139 million and 137 million uniques/month, respectively. AOL comes in 4th (behind Microsoft) with 111 million uniques according to comScore.
Next up, Yahoo is to use Google’s Adsense to deliver relevant ads alongside its own
ads on a test basis (two weeks). It’s looking more and more like a move to tease Microsoft just enough so that it will either increase its offer to something more acceptable to Yahoo or make them go away (how did Microsoft become the kids that no one wants to play with…more of a rhetorical question).
So Let’s Play This Out…
No secret that a few online properties dominate online advertising, which is estimated to be about $21 billion in 2007 (online ad spending is expected to hit about $51 and about 15.4% of total media buys billion by 2012). 
So if Yahoo expands its “test” with Google and completely runs Google (which I don’t think will happen – 1) it would shift Yahoo power to Google, 2) that would allow Google to dominate in ways it doesn’t/can’t now and 3) it’s shaping up to be a bluff anyway), then that exposes advertisers to potentially more than 270 million unique visitors (or if you look at ad networks’ overall reach, a combined Yahoo and Google ad network would be 310 million uniques).
Monopolies
That’s a heck of a lot of control over ad rates that a combined Yahoo/Google network would control. That would force smaller players to combine, which I think will happen anyway as a defensive tactic:
- While internet advertising is growing at a great pace, overall actual dollar spend is still finite…there’s so much money in corporate coffers, and
- the number of online properties that can be created is infinite - thus, you have an infinite number of online properties competing for finite dollars.
Offline Going Online
No. 2 above, combined with internet advertising growth, is driving traditionally offline media to partner and acquire online properties.
Radio One, the biggest urban terrestrial radio company, announced on April 10 that it is acquiring Community Connect, owner of BlackPlanet.com and AsianAve.com, for $38 million (Black Planet was one of the FIRST social networking sites, and it focused on the niche model which has gotten hot – it’s lost a little luster with the propensity for being spammy, like MySpace, but it’s still one of the go to sites for people and studios pushing certain films).
Hearst Media, known for its offline properties (magazines, newspapers and TV stations), has been acquiring websites as well.
The Goal: offer advertising clients a greater reach off AND online. One point of contact for a wider reach. Of course, the main goal is to maximize revenue since terrestrial radio and magazines have been having a tough time growing revenue.
Smaller Sites
How do smaller sites, that have a few tens or hundreds of thousands of visitors, compete?
Get this - borrow from the big boys and merge. If not merge, then create a network of sites that can drive pricing power with advertisers. This could be a lot more lucrative if done right.
Competitive Landscape
So you basically have the following groups in this order
- Search – Yahoo, Google, AOL
- Traditionally offline who already are online – NY Times, LA Times, Fox Interactive
- Large Social Networking – MySpace, Facebook, etc.
- Traditionally offline media going online – Hearst, Radio-One
- Smaller sites that combine to form a larger network - ?